Prediction of 11-year incidence of psychophysically dependent status or death among community-dwelling younger elderlies: from an age-specified community-based cohort study (the NISSIN project)

BACKGROUND@#Predicting adverse health events and implementing preventative measures are a necessary challenge. It is important for healthcare planners and policymakers to allocate the limited resource to high-risk persons. Prediction is also important for older individuals, their family members, and clinicians to prepare mentally and financially. The aim of this study is to develop a prediction model for within 11-year dependent status requiring long-term nursing care or death in older adults for each sex.@*METHODS@#We carried out age-specified cohort study of community dwellers in Nisshin City, Japan. The older adults aged 64 years who underwent medical check-up between 1996 and 2000 were included in the study. The primary outcome was the incidence of the psychophysically dependent status or death or by the end of the year of age 75 years. Univariable logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the associations between candidate predictors and the outcome. Using the variables with p-values less than 0.1, multivariable logistic regression analyses were then performed with backward stepwise elimination to determine the final predictors for the model.@*RESULTS@#Of the 1525 female participants at baseline, 105 had an incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 15 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.763 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.714-0.813). Of the 1548 male participants at baseline, 211 had incidence of the study outcome. The final prediction model consisted of 16 variables, and the c-statistics for predicting the outcome was 0.735 (95% CI 0.699-0.771).@*CONCLUSIONS@#We developed a prediction model for older adults to forecast 11-year incidence of dependent status requiring nursing care or death in each sex. The predictability was fair, but we could not evaluate the external validity of this model. It could be of some help for healthcare planners, policy makers, clinicians, older individuals, and their family members to weigh the priority of support.

A feasibility study of the incidence and symptoms of the throwing yips in college baseball players / 体力科学

The yips represent a disorder that makes it challenging for an individual to perform automatic and coordinated movements in sports activities. The cause of the yips is not sufficiently clarified, and limited information is available regarding throwing yips in baseball. Therefore, this study was designed to clarify the incidence and characteristics of the throwing yips among college baseball players. Total 107 players of the college baseball team participated in the study and completed the questionnaire by answering questions about their experience of the yips (loss of control to throw the ball accurately for more than 1 month), the symptom intensity, and changes observed in the symptoms in different situations. The 47.1% of players met the definition of throwing yips. The symptoms of the yips were more pronounced with short-distances and low intensity of throwing. Moreover, there were various subjective symptoms, such as the issue about co-contraction of the upper limb, sensory function, body ownership, and movement planning. Various physical symptoms associated with throwing yips suggest that the yips are not only a disorder of motor skills, but result from movement disorders. The present results show that the occurrence of the yips depends on the throwing condition; this finding provides useful insights into the mechanism and the treatment of the yips. Interdisciplinary studies that aim to elucidate the cause of the yips and develop effective intervention are necessary.

Lifestyle and psychosocial factors and a decline in competence in daily living among Japanese early elderly people: from an age-specified community-based cohort study (NISSIN project)

BACKGROUND@#To let the early elderly live well, understanding how lifestyle and psychosocial factors related to a decline in competence in daily living is important.@*METHODS@#We investigated the associations between lifestyle and psychosocial factors at age 64 years and a decline in the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of Competence score of ≥ 2 points at age 70 years among the participants in comprehensive medical check-ups living in a city in Japan. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed separately for men and women.@*RESULTS@#Of the 1113 eligible men and 1203 eligible women, 110 men and 80 women showed a deteriorated competence in daily living during the 6 years. In men, risk was increased with ≥ 2 nighttime awakenings (multivariable odds ratio [mOR] 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.19-3.86) and living alone (mOR 4.68, 95% CI 1.22-18.0), whereas risk was significantly decreased with a medium or fast gait (mOR 0.37 and 0.21, 95% CI 0.21-0.67 and 0.08-0.58) and high academic achievement (mOR 0.32 and 0.43, 95% CI 0.19-0.53 and 0.25-0.72). In women, risk was decreased with high life satisfaction (mOR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16-0.91) and participation in community activities (mOR 0.50, 95% CI 0.29-0.86) but increased with depressive mood (mOR 1.86, 95% CI 1.09-3.18).@*CONCLUSION@#Living alone for men and low life satisfaction for women at age 64 years were markedly associated with the risk of a subsequent declining competence in daily living.

Challenges in the conduct of clinical research / 医学教育

The promotion of clinical research in Japan requires the establishment of a formal and systematic education and training program for clinicians to ensure they become effective clinician investigators. The first of its kind in Japan, a formal 1-year masters-degree-level training program (MCR course) was started at Kyoto University School of Medicine and Public Health. The first 28 students graduated in 2008, with most returning to their original clinical institutions. <br>1) As follow-up, we conducted a self-administered questionnaire survey of all 28 graduates (response rate, 86%) concerning the current status of clinical research and problems encountered at their institutions.<br>2) Almost 40% of respondents (n=24) reported &quot;no time&quot; or &quot;no research collaborators&quot; for clinical research.<br>3) Twenty respondents (83%) have attempted to promote clinical research at their hospital or workplace, but only 1 has received institutional support.<br>4) Over half of the respondents (54%) would like to be working in both clinical research and clinical practice at their hospital in the future (10-year timescale). Forty-two percent of respondents had a concrete image of the clinical researcher's career path. <br>5) Although open to improvement, the MCR program presents a concrete model for the education of clinical researchers. These findings suggest that promoting the conduct of clinical research requires the implementation of a support system and adjustment of personal and physical infrastructure.